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My long-term prediction has been proven wrong. For the past 2-3 years, I have expected that the Fed would drop the target rate to near-zero in this time frame (Spring 2024). My reasoning, now disproven as the Fed has announced it will hold rates steady, was as follows:

I believed the Fed would yield to pressure from the Biden Administration to lower rates in order to create a boom for election season. I am certain the Biden Administration has been applying that pressure; the Fed not yielding to it indicates a rift between the banking elite and the administration.

I also saw the large amount of upcoming treasury bonds reaching maturity, which need to be rolled over this year. At these interest rates, we will see debt service surpass 1/3 of annual federal tax receipts. Again, I expected pressure from the legislature and the treasury department to avoid this escalation of the debt spiral. Apparently, the banking elites are not concerned about said debt spiral, and are happy to leave the legislature and treasury out to dry.

My new read on the broader political/economic situation at this point, having been proven wrong, is this: The banking, corporate, and technocrat factions of the elites have made use of the identity socialists over the past decade and a half to disrupt the culture and distract from their power grabs. However, the past 4 years have seen those identity socialists run amok within the Biden Administration and across corporate culture. We saw people like Larry Fink starting to talk about the costs of DEI over the past year or so, and discussing how they can put that away, or at least de-emphasize it. Now, since the Hamas attack on southern Israel in October, the Neocon/Zionist faction and the pro-Israel elements of the progressive coalition are uniting to crush the identity socialists, who have come out in support of the Gazan Palestinians.

I believe the elites are angling for a second term of Trump, which they hope to fill with Neocons and sabotage any of Trump’s main efforts, while pushing him to be more and more pro-Israel and anti-woke (just like they did for his first term). If my read is correct, then we will see a heavy emphasis in coming months from DNC Apparatus attacking Project 2025 and other efforts that look to keep a second Trump Administration from being filled by swamp creatures. Members of Congress who are not actively pro-Israel will face hefty primary challenges and have little party support for November. The trend of suppressing anti-Zionist rhetoric through all possible institutions will continue and escalate. Ukraine will be set aside, since it distracts from Israel, but anti-Putin rhetoric will remain.

But hey. We might get some tax breaks.

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